…Dean knew the day would come as he walked off the court after defeating Colorado in 1997. All records (except Cal Ripken’s and Cy Young’s) have a specific shelf life and then must yield to usurpers. Today we examine Dean Smith’s Most Division 1 Wins – 879 and the immediate and eventual “threats” to that crown. You may be quite surprised at what the next decade will likely bring about.
Carolina fans have known the day would come but like HamChuk knowing his Peter-San might die … they “don’t want it to”. Dean’s seven-year reign as NCAA’s Division 1 All Time Winningest Men’s Basketball Coach is imperiled. Sometimes in December of 2006 or January 2007, General Robert Montgomery Knight will ascend the throne. The tale of the tape is below for all to see.
As of March 16, 2005, Bob Knight is at 852, just 27 Ws away from tying Ye Olde Legend. Give Knight 1-2 more in this Tournament and he goes into next season “within reach” but most likely a few short Ws short, meaning early in ’06-’07 “IT will happen”
Will Silent Sam weep … will the Morehead Planetarium Sundial spin wildly out of control … will The Old Well gurgle sludge? Or will Dean simply pick up the phone and call his long time friend and frequent golfing partner to congratulate him. Let’s vote for the latter.
Will Dean be less a man, less “a legend”, less “a hallowed figure of stellar achievement to be envied by all”. No, of course not. He simply will not hold the record for Most Wins By A Men’s Basketball Coach in NCAA’s Division 1. Incidentally, Knight will be 67 around that time which is the same age as Dean when he set the record in 1997. BUT will be in his 41 season as a Head Coach compared to Dean’s 36. AaaaaHA!
We won’t even get into the myriad of bizarre lengths that UNC’s Lunatic Fringe faction will go to to “yes, but …” diminish Knight’s achievement when it occurs. We will offer several liklihoods …
- Dean still has most Ws at “one school”.
- Dean never threw a chair or strangled a player (that we know of)
- Dean never wore an ugly sweater on the sidelines
- Dean had more NBA players
- Dean did it in the “Era Before Plasma TV”
- Dean once had “a blue team” and Knight did not
- Dean was …. well … he was … HE WAS OUR DEAN!
Once Tar Heels adjust to Knight holding the record instead of Dean then, of course, the record becomes totally meaningless in their partisan universe. Good thing … because within the next decade or so some other pretty scary developments are lining up to take place.
The following statistics are up to date as of March 16, 2005. There are numerous retired coaches (Rupp, Meyer, Iba, etc) left out of this list just for ease of seeing current active records.
CURRENT TOTALS (3/16/05)
COACH …………….. AGE ….. WINS ….. TO CATCH DEAN
Dean Smith 67 (74) 879
Bob Knight 65 852 27
Eddie Sutton 69 779 100
Lute Olson 70 737 142
John Chaney 73 723 156
Mike Krzyzewski 58 719 160
Jim Boeheim 60 703 176
Jim Calhoun 63 702 177
Hugh Durham 68 633 246
Billy Tubbs 67 626 253
Bob Huggins 51 566 313
Gary Williams 58 538 341
Bo Ryan 58 473 406
Roy Williams 56 464 415
Rick Pitino 53 443 436
Kelvin Sampson 47 435 444
Rick Barnes 51 363 516
Tubby Smith 52 340 539
Bobby Lutz 46 315 564
John Calipari 46 302 577
Steve Alford 41 266 613
Skip Prosser 55 258 621
Herb Sendek 41 230 649
Billy Donovan 40 223 656
Tom Izzo 50 207 673
Now if we apply some statistical magic we see a reorganization of this list. Still using the above list of randomly selected well-known coaches, we will use 67 as the retirement age acknowledging there is nothing magic about it other than that’s how old “Dean” was when he retired. Add 20+ Ws to above totals for every year beyond 67 … subtract 20/yr for “early retirements”.
Dean became a Head Coach in his early 30s (32). As you will see, getting an early start makes all the difference in the long run. We will also use an annual Win total of 23 wins/year for each coach. Each of these coaches merits such an assumption … well, almost each of them. Some will certainly skew into the upper 20s in annual Ws.
Same list of prominent coaches … projecting their Career Win Totals at age 67 based on current W total PLUS conservative average of only 23 Ws/year until 67.
PROJECTED CAREER WIN TOTALS
Bob Huggins ……………… 934
Mike Krzyzewski …………. 926
Bob Knight ……………….. 898
Kelvin Sampson …………. 895
DEAN SMITH (ret)…… 879
ADOLPH RUPP(dec)…. 876
Jim Boeheim ……………… 864
Steve Alford ………………. 864
Billy Donovan ……………. 854
Eddie Sutton ……………. 831
Herb Sendek …………….. 818
Rick Barnes ……………… 803
Bobby Lutz ……………….. 798
Jim Calhoun ………………. 794
LEFTY DRIESELL(ret) . 786
Lute Olson …………… 789
John Calipari…………….. 785
Rick Pitino …………………… 775
Gary Williams ……………… 745
JERRY TARKANIAN ….. 729
John Chaney ……………….. 723
Roy Williams ………………. 717
Bo Ryan ……………………. 680
Hugh Durham (68)………. 673 ***
Billy Tubbs (67)……………. 659
JOHN WOODEN(ret)…. 664
NORM SLOAN (dec..…. 624
Tom Izzo …………….. 598
Tubby Smith ………………. 585
FRANK McGUIRE (dec).. 549
Skip Prosser ……………… 501
EVERETT CASE(dec).…. 379
JIM VALVANO(dec)..… 346
Notable in the above …
- Lute Olson (70) and Eddie Sutton (69) are older than 67 and are only limited by how long they intend to coach. We are allowing each man TWO more years. Too much ground to make up for either to “catch Dean”.
- The “trick” is starting young. Bob Huggins was a Head Coach at 28. Herb Sendek, Steve Alford, Billy Donovan, and Kelvin Sampson all got early starts.
- John Wooden and Frank McGuire got late starts. Ol’ Roy got too late a start to be a “contenda”.
- A “top coach” can only score 25-30 Ws/year so maximum # of years is vital
- If Boeheim goes to 68-69 he passes Dean
- I arbitrarily “retired” John Chaney after this season.
- Rick Pitino lost 5+ years (125 Ws) with his NBA folly otherwise he projects into Top Ten.
- There are numerous other retired coaches in the 600+ category. We are focusing on currently active coaches … and “LEGENDS”.
- If Herb Sendek coaches 26 more years averaging 23 Ws/per he ends up as the 15th Winningest Coach of All Time … (that will win you a few bar bets!). Yes, I realize that Herb is not routinely hitting 20+ Ws/year.
- Huggins is 100 Ws head of Ol’ Roy and is 5 years younger.
- The “ones to watch” are Huggins, Sampson, Alford, and Donovan.
- Hard to imagine three more “hated” coaches to UNC fans than Huggins, Knight, and Krzyzewski … on track to be #1 – 3. Who said Life is Fair!
These are “statistics”. Some folks swear by’em … other claim they are meaningless. Which camp one is in usually depends upon whether your side benefits by them or not. The ONLY STAT that REALLY matters is (fill in your choice that best favors your guy) … Nat Champs won, Winning %, Avg Ws per season, etc etc etc.
Fans, being the quite odd little beasts they are, will twist, bend, split hairs, and scream in unknown tongues in arguing such issues.
As you fret over “your brackets” keep these totals in mind. Can Eddie Sutton pick up 4-5 more Ws … every W Knight gets inches him closer … Enjoy!
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Swagger’s Stumper
Steve Alford did NOT hit the buzzerbeater to win a NatChmp.
His teammate _____________ did.
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Quin Buckner was Scott May’s PG w/ Indiana … as Raymond Felton is to Sean May.
Don’t fret your brackets … the ditzy blond in Accounts Payable always wins and she can’t even spell Gonzaga.
Baseball, Steroids, and Congress … is that enough silliness to merit an upcoming column.
Swagger about to make MAJOR MEDIA SPLASH!
